MODSIM 2025

MODSIM is the International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, a biennial scientific conference organised by the Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand (MSSANZ). It is a long-established multidisciplinary meeting covering environmental modelling, natural hazards, climate processes, hydrology, ecology, engineering, health, optimisation, data science and simulation-based forecasting.

The 2025 congress, held in Adelaide from 30 November to 4 December, is organised under the theme "Modelling for Positive Change: Bridging Science and Society". The focus is on the development, evaluation and application of modelling methods that support environmental and societal decision-making, including high-frequency data integration, hazard intelligence and transparent modelling workflows.

MODSIM 2025 – Relevant Streams and Sessions

Stream A – Applied & Computational Mathematics

Stream A focuses on mathematical methods, statistical inference, and computational techniques used to support modelling and data analysis. Themes include uncertainty quantification, dimensionality reduction, Bayesian inference, numerical optimisation, and frameworks for handling complex, noisy or incomplete datasets.

A3 – Modelling and Simulation for Trustworthy Data Science on Challenging Datasets

Session A3 addresses transparency, trustworthiness, and reproducibility in data-driven workflows. It considers modelling frameworks that articulate assumptions, quantify uncertainty, and manage high-dimensional, noisy or partially missing data.

High-frequency satellite datasets such as Himawari-8 exhibit exactly these challenges: multi-band radiances, partial spatial gaps, noise, and mixed aerosol composition. Deterministic methods such as Δr–NBT and brightness temperature difference (BTD) logic provide reproducible, traceable transformations with clear mathematical provenance, directly addressing A3's focus on trustworthy data science.

The session also highlights the interplay between statistical inference, data assimilation, and simulation, areas closely aligned with workflows combining geostationary radiance, motion fields, and reanalysis chemistry for smoke, dust, and pollutant dynamics.

A4 – Computational Statistics and Data Analysis

Session A4 covers statistical and numerical techniques for analysing complex datasets, including time-series analysis, spatial statistics, uncertainty estimation, and model validation.

High-frequency satellite analysis involves anomaly detection, temporal aggregation, regression-based estimation, and cross-validation against ground monitoring and reanalysis products. The analysis of ΔT fields, brightness temperature gradients, and plume-structure statistics fits directly within the scope of A4.

Stream C – Computer Science & Engineering

Stream C focuses on workflow automation, data integration, computational architecture, and technological foundations that support large-scale modelling systems. Themes include workflow engines, data infrastructure, reproducibility, and big-data processing.

C1 – Using Workflow Platforms in Modelling and Simulation

Session C1 examines workflow management, automation, and reproducibility. Large-scale satellite analysis, including ΔFusion processing across multi-year Himawari archives, depends on parallelised Bash, Python, CDO, and GDAL workflows that emphasise reliability, orchestration, and transparent transformations.

C5 – Systems for Supporting Re-use of Data

Session C5 addresses data archiving, indexing, harmonisation, and re-use. High-frequency geostationary archives require consistent metadata, harmonised grids, reproducible resampling, and automated ingestion, challenges aligned with C5’s focus on data longevity and reuse.

Stream F – Environment & Ecology

Stream F covers environmental monitoring, ecological modelling, remote sensing, environmental exposure, climate-driven change, and decision support systems. High-frequency brightness temperature gradients, plume structure, aerosol classification and ground-level concentration estimation fit strongly within this domain.

F1 – Ecological and Environmental Modelling Using Combined Mathematical and Statistical Approaches

Session F1 focuses on mathematical and statistical modelling of environmental systems. Topics include contaminant transport, ecological stressors, exposure modelling, spatial modelling and interactions between biophysical processes.

ΔFusion-enhanced satellite fields offer sub-hourly information on environmental drivers: smoke exposure, dust loading, temperature structures, stability fields, and extreme-event dynamics. Such diagnostics support ecological modelling by revealing fine-scale variations absent from coarse monitoring networks or reanalysis.

F3 – Modelling for Effective Climate Change Adaptation

Session F3 covers modelling approaches relevant to climate adaptation, including fire behaviour, drought, dust mobilisation, and regional haze. High-frequency satellite diagnostics provide evidence of climate-amplified extremes and support trend analysis across a decade of Himawari observations.

F5 – Advancing Decision Support: Decision Tools for Building Robust and Resilient Futures

Session F5 focuses on modelling and analytical tools for planning and policy. This includes exposure estimation, hazard intelligence, integrated assessments and systems that produce timely, defensible evidence.

Deterministic satellite processing and short-duration pollutant peak resolution provide decision-relevant inputs for public health, hazard response, infrastructure planning, and regulatory contexts.

Stream G – Global Change & Natural Hazards

Stream G covers modelling and analysis of natural hazards and global environmental change. Themes include fires, dust storms, heatwaves, drought, cyclones and interactions between climate processes and extreme events. Remote sensing and model–data integration are explicitly recognised as essential tools.

G3 – Climate Risk Assessment for Government and Industry

Session G3 examines climate-related risks affecting human and natural systems. Topics include extreme-event frequency, heat stress, exposure modelling and integration of environmental information into risk frameworks.

High-frequency satellite diagnostics reveal smoke and dust intrusions, boundary-layer stability transitions, plume persistence and short-duration extremes that drive acute exposure and translate directly into risk metrics.

G4 – Projections of Regional Climate Change

Session G4 focuses on regional climate projections, climate-forcing mechanisms and evaluation of long-term environmental trends.

A decade of Himawari-8 data at 10-minute resolution provides observational capacity for examining sea-surface temperature dipoles, land–sea thermal contrasts, inversion frequency, dust mobilisation pathways and aerosol climatology. These diagnostics complement coarse-resolution climate projections and help evaluate near-surface processes influencing long-term climate patterns.

G7 – Modelling Increases in Landscape Fire Effects on Human and Ecosystem Health

Session G7 addresses the growing effects of landscape fires under climate change. Themes include smoke transport, exposure modelling, fire–weather coupling and impacts on ecosystems and human health.

High-frequency satellite fields at 500 m and 10-minute resolution resolve event-scale fire behaviour, plume height signals, particle-size transitions, mixed smoke–dust episodes and acute exposure peaks, all essential for assessing health and ecological impacts.

G8 – Modelling of Bushfire Dynamics, Fire Weather, Impact and Risk

Session G8 covers modelling of bushfire dynamics, pyrocumulonimbus development, local meteorology and hazard prediction.

Brightness temperature difference fields (such as BT10–09 stability metrics) and ΔFusion-enhanced satellite outputs capture real-time energy shifts influencing plume coupling and fire behaviour. These diagnostics complement fire-weather modelling and assist in interpreting model behaviour during extreme fire events.

Oral Presentation — G7-286

High-Resolution Landscape Fire Monitoring: Satellite-Guided Reconstruction of Ground-Level Air Pollutants at 10-minute and 500-m Scale

This presentation demonstrates high-frequency reconstruction of landscape-fire smoke using Himawari-8 Level-1b radiances enhanced to 500-m and 10-minute resolution via the ΔFusion method. The analysis focuses on the 10 December 2019 Black Summer fire event in New South Wales.

Key elements:
• High-frequency radiance and temperature fields resolve rapid smoke-front evolution not visible in hourly or daily products
• Brightness Temperature Difference (BTD) indices support aerosol/gas discrimination, particle-size inference and thermal-stability diagnostics
• Thermal-gradient fields (∇T10–09) describe short-timescale motion and plume behaviour
• Infrared channels provide partial retrieval under cloud
• CAMS reanalysis offers coarse chemical context for GLC estimation
• Short-duration exposure peaks are identifiable at residential scale

Presentation PDF

Poster — G7-287 (Board 33)

When Dust Meets Cloud: Overcoming Satellite Monitoring Gaps in High-Impact Pollution Events Across Australasia

This poster describes methods for improving retrieval during high-impact pollution events affected by bright land surfaces, haze, mixed aerosol layers and cloud cover. Four major 2019 events are examined: Kalimantan fires, Hanoi haze, the NSW dust storm and the 10 December Black Summer fire day.

Key elements:
• Standard AOD products misclassify or smooth critical smoke and dust structures
• ΔFusion and BTD-based logic reduce cloud interference by using IR transparency regions
• Air Type classification distinguishes smoke, dust, mixed cases and gas signatures
• CAMS reanalysis provides coarse chemical context for GLC estimation
• Near-real-time estimates of PM1, PM2.5, PM10, NOx, SO2 and O3 are feasible
• Combined methods improve spatiotemporal coverage during extreme haze and dust episodes

Poster PDF

Related Publications

The MODSIM work relates directly to several peer-reviewed studies:
Himawari-HD via Δr–NBT (2025) – deterministic resolution enhancement method.
Dual-band infrared indices for aerosol compositional change (2020).
Evaluation of CAMS reanalysis for ground-level concentrations (2024).
These publications appear on the site via ORCID integration.