MODSIM 2025
MODSIM is the International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, a biennial scientific conference organised by the Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand (MSSANZ). It is a long-established multidisciplinary meeting covering environmental modelling, natural hazards, climate processes, hydrology, ecology, engineering, health, optimisation, data science and simulation-based forecasting.
The 2025 congress, was held in Adelaide from 30 November to 4 December, is organised under the theme "Modelling for Positive Change: Bridging Science and Society". The focus is on the development, evaluation and application of modelling methods that support environmental and societal decision-making, including high-frequency data integration, hazard intelligence and transparent modelling workflows.
MODSIM 2025 – Relevant Streams and Sessions
Stream G – Global Change & Natural Hazards
Stream G covers modelling and analysis of natural hazards and global environmental change. Themes include fires, dust storms, heatwaves, drought, cyclones and interactions between climate processes and extreme events. Remote sensing and model–data integration are explicitly recognised as essential tools.
G3 – Climate Risk Assessment for Government and Industry
Session G3 examines climate-related risks affecting human and natural systems. Topics include extreme-event frequency, heat stress, exposure modelling and integration of environmental information into risk frameworks.
High-frequency satellite diagnostics reveal smoke and dust intrusions, boundary-layer stability transitions, plume persistence and short-duration extremes that drive acute exposure and translate directly into risk metrics.
G4 – Projections of Regional Climate Change
Session G4 focuses on regional climate projections, climate-forcing mechanisms and evaluation of long-term environmental trends.
A decade of Himawari-8 data at 10-minute resolution provides observational capacity for examining sea-surface temperature dipoles, land–sea thermal contrasts, inversion frequency, dust mobilisation pathways and aerosol climatology. These diagnostics complement coarse-resolution climate projections and help evaluate near-surface processes influencing long-term climate patterns.
G7 – Modelling Increases in Landscape Fire Effects on Human and Ecosystem Health
Session G7 addresses the growing effects of landscape fires under climate change. Themes include smoke transport, exposure modelling, fire–weather coupling and impacts on ecosystems and human health.
High-frequency satellite fields at 500 m and 10-minute resolution resolve event-scale fire behaviour, plume height signals, particle-size transitions, mixed smoke–dust episodes and acute exposure peaks, all essential for assessing health and ecological impacts.
G8 – Modelling of Bushfire Dynamics, Fire Weather, Impact and Risk
Session G8 covers modelling of bushfire dynamics, pyrocumulonimbus development, local meteorology and hazard prediction.
Brightness temperature difference fields (such as BT10–09 stability metrics) and ΔFusion-enhanced satellite outputs capture real-time energy shifts influencing plume coupling and fire behaviour. These diagnostics complement fire-weather modelling and assist in interpreting model behaviour during extreme fire events.
Oral Presentation — G7-286
High-Resolution Landscape Fire Monitoring: Satellite-Guided Reconstruction of Ground-Level Air Pollutants at 10-minute and 500-m Scale
This presentation demonstrates high-frequency reconstruction of landscape-fire smoke using Himawari-8 Level-1b radiances enhanced to 500-m and 10-minute resolution via the ΔFusion method. The analysis focuses on the 10 December 2019 Black Summer fire event in New South Wales.
Key elements:
• High-frequency radiance and temperature fields resolve rapid smoke-front evolution not
visible in hourly or daily products
• Brightness Temperature Difference (BTD) indices support aerosol/gas discrimination,
particle-size inference and thermal-stability diagnostics
• Thermal-gradient fields (∇T10–09) describe short-timescale motion and plume behaviour
• Infrared channels provide partial retrieval under cloud
• CAMS reanalysis offers coarse chemical context for GLC estimation
• Short-duration exposure peaks are identifiable at residential scale
Poster — G7-287 (Board 33)
When Dust Meets Cloud: Overcoming Satellite Monitoring Gaps in High-Impact Pollution Events Across Australasia
This poster describes methods for improving retrieval during high-impact pollution events affected by bright land surfaces, haze, mixed aerosol layers and cloud cover. Four major 2019 events are examined: Kalimantan fires, Hanoi haze, the NSW dust storm and the 10 December Black Summer fire day.
Key elements:
• Standard AOD products misclassify or smooth critical smoke and dust structures
• ΔFusion and BTD-based logic reduce cloud interference by using IR transparency regions
• Air Type classification distinguishes smoke, dust, mixed cases and gas signatures
• CAMS reanalysis provides coarse chemical context for GLC estimation
• Near-real-time estimates of PM1, PM2.5, PM10, NOx, SO2 and O3 are feasible
• Combined methods improve spatiotemporal coverage during extreme haze and dust episodes
Australian HIA Community of Practice: Advancing Quantitative Methods in Environmental HIA
From Satellite Radiances to Climate-Health Intelligence: Beyond AOD for Continuous High Resolution Exposure Assessment
This presentation showcases a breakthrough in health-focused air quality monitoring during dust-storms and wild-fires. Using Himawari-8 satellite radiances and the ΔFusion method, ground-level smoke and pollutant exposure are reconstructed at 500-meter spatial and 10-minute temporal resolution. The analysis centers on the 10 December 2019 Black Summer fire event in New South Wales, demonstrating how rapid, localized pollution peaks, critical for health impact assessment, can be detected and mapped.
Key elements:
• Standard AOD and daily-averaged models miss short-term, high-intensity pollution peaks that drive acute health outcomes
• High-resolution (10-minute, 500-m) satellite radiance data enables detection of rapid, localized exposure events
• Exposure mapping at postcode/neighborhood scale aligns with health outcome data collection
• Pollutant speciation distinguishes between smoke, dust, and other aerosols for more accurate health risk assessment
• Radiance-based methods provide near-real-time, meteorologically consistent exposure surfaces, even under cloud and smoke
• Enables targeted public health warnings, acute event detection, and improved health impact assessment for vulnerable populations
Related Publications
The MODSIM work relates directly to several peer-reviewed studies:
• Himawari-HD via Δr–NBT (2025) – deterministic resolution enhancement method.
• Dual-band infrared indices for aerosol compositional change (2020).
• Evaluation of CAMS reanalysis for ground-level concentrations (2024).
These publications appear on the site via ORCID integration.